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Scenario-Based Identification

An approach to risk identification that imagines specific 'what-if' scenarios, an attacker doing X, a system failing in Y way, to surface risks that abstract analysis might miss.

Scenario-based identification asks: what could plausibly go wrong here? Instead of brainstorming risks in the abstract, it constructs concrete scenarios, an attacker exploits a specific weakness, a vendor fails, a key person leaves, and traces them through to impact. Scenarios make risks vivid and surface ones that abstract checklists miss. It is a powerful risk-identification technique used in workshops and assessments, complementing other identification methods.

Introduced in: Risk Management Fundamentals

Examples

  • Walking through a specific attacker scenario to surface its risks.
  • Imagining a vendor failing and tracing the impacts that result.
  • Using scenarios alongside checklists for fuller risk identification.

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